Al Jazeera Journalism Review

Outside image

Investigative journalism: Hypothesis-based investigations

What is a hypothesis-based investigation, how do you come up with one and how do you investigate and prove it? Part 2 of our series on investigative journalism

 

Coming up with hypotheses is one of the investigative journalist’s most important mental and organisational tools. 

The hypothesis is critical to how an investigation proceeds. And because of how critical it is, it cannot simply be cooked up out of nowhere. It must have a solid grounding in carefully acquired facts and draw on preliminary research showing that there is a story worth writing.

A hypothesis is made up of facts and assumptions. Facts here means solid, corroborated and carefully documented information, while assumptions means information that is yet to be corroborated, which the journalist works to prove or disprove. 

 

Read more

Investigative journalism, Part 1: What should you investigate?

Investigative journalism in the digital age

 

Investigative journalism, like science, is about coming up with hypotheses, testing them, and trying to prove them. The best examples of investigative journalism are rooted in a hypothesis that allows them to work out what happened, how it happened, and why it happened. 

In investigative journalism, a hypothesis is a proposed explanation that assesses a problem or issue in order to establish the truth of what happened by making connections between the facts - even if those facts are not yet entirely verified. It provides provisional answers on how an event might be connected to an actor (a perpetrator) and its victim and how big the problem might be. These are the basic elements of a hypothesis, as Figure 1 shows:

 

IJ

 

Hypotheses are important because:

  • They make it easier to collect data, gather and organise new facts and evidence, and analyse it. 
  • They help us keep control of the investigation and manage it effectively. 
  • They help test the easiest and best methodology for establishing a hypothesis. 
  • They help us to focus and be precise and to establish the boundaries and goals of the investigation. 
  • They help us to more closely understand the issue that we are researching. 
  • They help us to come up with solutions in the event that problems arise. 
  • They are the cornerstone of a fully integrated investigation. 
  • They help us to market the idea to others.
  • They help us to set budgets and keep a tighter hold on time and resources. 
  • They help us to establish the sources of the investigation. 

IJ6

A hypothesis has the following characteristics: 

  • It can be tested. 
  • It is based on established and documented facts as well as uncorroborated information (assumptions). 
  • It is concise. 
  • It is coherent and based on facts that the journalist is looking to gather as well as information they already have. 
  • It deals with a single problem.

Despite the centrality of the hypothesis to the investigative process, it can always be amended if new evidence and facts require. A good journalist should always be open to evidence that contradicts their hypothesis and work just as hard to disprove the hypothesis as to prove it - that is, they should make just as much effort to find evidence contradicting it as they do to find evidence supporting it. The hypothesis is not an end in itself but a means of getting to the truth. 

Let’s take the example of road accidents in Country X. Our journalist has conducted her initial investigation, and is now categorising the data and assumptions she has come up with: 

Facts 

According to official reports that she has found, 10 main roads in Country X - all built between 2015 and 2019 - do not meet technical specifications. 

Technical reports and mapping of seventy different accidents on these roads between 2015 and 2019 show that engineering defects were the main reason in those accidents. 

There are twenty coroners’ reports showing deaths resulting from these accidents. 

There are 15 medical reports showing injuries resulting from these accidents. 

Data and information 

All tendering information on the construction of those roads, published in dailies and relevant websites. 

Our journalist has conducted interviews with experts and specialists who confirm that there are roads that do not meet the established technical standards. They say that the oversight committee takes money and gifts from contractors, and give plenty of examples - but no real evidence. 

All the annual reports of Country X’s Traffic Authority issued from 2015 to 2019. 

All the annual reports of the engineering bodies responsible for the construction of those roads during the same period. 

The names of all those responsible at the oversight committee. 

All the names of companies that won road construction tenders and the names of their owners and employees during this period. 

All the news items relevant to the roads, categorised by timeframe and information. 

Technical plans for the roads provided in the tendering documents before construction began. 

Construction and infrastructure legislation. 

IJ7

Assumptions 

  • The oversight committee is colluding with contractors. 
  • The committee receives money and gifts from contractors. In exchange, they turn a blind eye to problems with the roads. 
  • The contractors change the plans agreed on in contracts concluded with the government, without any justification, in order to cut costs. 
  • Contractors cut corners on construction in order to save money. 
  • The laws that regulate public infrastructure projects include loopholes that allow contracts to be circumvented. 
  • There are serious shortcomings in government oversight of roads. There is both abuse of office and neglect taking place. 

Our journalist then takes all of these points together and formulates the following hypothesis: “There are injuries and deaths on the motorways in Country X because of construction defects caused by contractors cutting corners. The government committee responsible for oversight is colluding with the contractors.” 

This hypothesis is clearly based on the preliminary research and the information and data that it has provided. It is concise, coherent and consists of one or two sentences. It breaks down into a number of central points, and each of these points produces a series of questions, each of which can be answered by a source or sources (whether human or documentary). This allows our journalist to produce a clear and specific hypothesis which can be tested and proved or disproved. 

Note that she has looked at open sources. She has inspected the roads herself by looking at official reports and speaking to experts. She has contacted human sources. 

The key to all this was generating a series of questions through an organised brainstorming exercise, questions she then tried to find answers for. The hypothesis shows the links between the event, the agent and the victim. It provides a provisional answer to the problem that our journalist wants to investigate. 

We can break it down into its central elements as follows: 

  • Two events. Firstly, contractors are cutting corners when building roads. Secondly, the government committee responsible for oversight is colluding with the contractors. 
  • Two actors. The contractors and the committee. 
  • The victim. Those killed and injured and their families. Also, the public purse, which is the common property of everyone. A hypothesis may involve one or more actors. It may also involve a single main event with several subsequent events. The same applies to victims.

IJ8

 

Planning an investigation 

After coming up with a hypothesis, a journalist can work out what information they have already and what information they want to get access to. The best way to do this is to produce a written research plan. A systematic plan requires systematic thinking. To produce a plan, we think up questions about the facts, sources, opinions and analysis, the background, and anticipated obstacles. 

  • The facts necessary to produce an investigation. 
  • The questions that lead us to those facts. 
  • The sources that answer these questions. 
  • The methodology. 
  • Acceptable standards for evidence. 

This division helps the journalist to prove the events took place and to gather evidence. Here we can use a schema like the one here: 

IJIJ

This schema will help our journalist to predict the results of the research plan. It will tell her where to start looking, and help her map out prospective and confirmed sources, establish sufficient standards of proof and decide on a methodology, budget and timeline for the investigation. 

When producing an investigation plan, we focus on proving that there has been logical, legal and ethical wrongdoing and establishing where this occurred, who is responsible and what their motives were (money, fear, coercion, maintaining the status quo, or neglect and incompetence). 

The schema answers the questions raised by the investigation plan: 

  • What is going on? Why should the public be interested in this investigation? Who is the target audience? The greater the likely audience interest, the more important it will be to the journalist and the news outlet. 
  • What is the mistake or wrongdoing that has taken place – that is, what is the event that we are focusing on? Is it a legal or an ethical violation? Does it make sense? How did this happen? Why did it happen? 
  • Who is the main actor? Who else participated? How did they do it? Why did they do it? Who benefited? 
  • What are the ramifications of this mistake? What are its effects? What are the likely consequences? 
  • Who was harmed directly? Who was harmed indirectly? Who suffers from this mistake or violation? 
  • Who benefits from publishing the investigation? Who will be hurt by its publication? Will it help enrich the public discussion

IJ0
The ICIJ web page shows on a mobile phone. ICIJ is International Consortium of Investigative Journalists and well known for The Panama Papers [Shutterstock] 

 

Proving your hypothesis 

In investigative journalism, evidence must be proven beyond all doubt, because doubt will be seen as a failure of the hypothesis. If an investigation presents possibilities rather than facts, then it is not yet fully formed. 

If a journalist is unable to provide proof of the incident and connect the perpetrator to it, it will undermine the hypothesis as a whole. The assumption is that the event did not take place and that the perpetrator did not cause it. Disproving this assumption requires solid, provable evidence collected by the journalist. 

An investigation begins with a hypothesis. A hypothesis starts as a suspicion that something has happened and that somebody is responsible. A good journalist works to develop this suspicion and possibly turn it into a certainty. If, after exhausting all your options, you still are not certain, then you may have produced decent journalism - but it will not be investigative journalism. 

Investigative journalism requires conviction, conviction requires certainty and certainty requires the elimination of any doubt. Doubt can only be eliminated by marshalling solid, reliable evidence. 

Suspicion is about events. Do the events make sense? Did they really happen as claimed? Is there evidence to support this? Is there evidence to suggest otherwise? What evidence? 

Are there official documents? Is there a single account or are there several logical accounts that can be woven together? 

Another kind of reasonable suspicion arises after study and inspection, after weighing up the evidence and deciding which is more solid and precise or free of problems. A good journalist looks for evidence refuting their hypothesis. This is the best way of avoiding guesswork. 

Contradictory evidence may demonstrate that the event did not happen as suggested in the hypothesis, and that the error was not deliberate - that it occurred because of a third party wanting it to. In this case you should be fair to the person and seek justice and precision.

Evidence may prove that the error was the result not of collusion and bad intentions but dereliction of duty or neglect. This is a very different story, even if the ultimate result is the same. 

 

This article has been adapted from the AJMI Investigative Journalism Handbook

 

 

More Articles

Suffering in silence - the Kashmiri journalists facing a mental health crisis

THE LONG READ: Al Jazeera Journalism Review has interviewed more than 20 journalists in India-controlled Kashmir who are facing exhausting, insurmountable obstacles to doing their jobs safely every single day

Adil Akhoon
Adil Amin Akhoon, Khalid Bashir Gura Published on: 29 May, 2023
How to analyse satellite imagery

When you have a story, but still need to tie up loose ends to answer where or when a particular event occurred, satellite imagery can point you in the right direction

Sara
Sara Creta Published on: 25 May, 2023
OSINT: Tracking ships, planes and weapons

Tracking ships and planes is an increasingly valuable technique in open-source investigations carried out by journalists. In part 4 of our special series, we examine how it works

Sara
Sara Creta Published on: 18 May, 2023
How social media bans have crippled journalism in India’s Punjab

The Indian government has ordered social media platforms to block hundreds of accounts of journalists and activists

Meer Faisal
Meer Faisal Published on: 16 May, 2023
Tear gas and internet blackouts - reporting on protests in Pakistan

REPORTER'S NOTEBOOK: Following the arrest of former Prime Minister Imran Khan, violence has erupted across Pakistan. For journalists, it is like reporting from the centre of a storm

Anam Hussain
Anam Hussain Published on: 14 May, 2023
Remembering Shireen; my colleague and a 'role model for professionalism'

On the eve of the first anniversary of the killing of Shireen Abu Akleh, Al Jazeera's Senior Correspondent in Palestine, her colleague commemorates the compassion, integrity and professionalism which made her the extraordinary journalist and human being that she was

Walid
Walid Omary Published on: 10 May, 2023
Planning and carrying out an open-source investigation

Part three of our special series of articles on using OSINT in journalism. This time, follow our four steps to completing an open-source investigation

Sara
Sara Creta Published on: 9 May, 2023
What is an open-source investigation?

In the second part of our special series on using open-source intelligence in journalism, we look at what constitutes and open-source investigation

Sara
Sara Creta Published on: 4 May, 2023
How misinformation in the media wreaked havoc on an Indian village

When journalists - and social media ‘influencers’ claiming to be journalists - aimed for sensationalism and did not check their facts about the outbreak of the HIV virus in an Indian village, the results were devastating

Saurabh Sharma
Saurabh Sharma Published on: 1 May, 2023
Using open-source intelligence in journalism

Where once journalists relied on sources for information - also known as ‘human intelligence’ (HUMINT) - they now increasingly rely on ‘open-source’ intelligence (OSINT) gathered from the internet, satellite imagery, corporate databases and much, much more

Phil
Phil Rees Published on: 12 Apr, 2023
Why is life so dangerous for Pakistani journalists?

Pakistani journalists face huge danger in the course of carrying out their work. Why is so little being done to address this?

Anam Hussain
Anam Hussain Published on: 6 Apr, 2023
Investigating the assassination of my own father

As a journalist, reporting on the murder of my father meant answering questions about my own position as an objective observer

Diana Lopez
Diana Lopez Zuleta Published on: 3 Apr, 2023
‘I have disturbing dreams’ - the reporters suffering mental trauma on the job

Remaining objective while bearing witness to atrocities and suffering abuse from authorities is taking its toll on the mental health of journalists in India

Saurabh Sharma
Saurabh Sharma Published on: 20 Mar, 2023
Understanding data journalism

Data journalism is about much more than just sorting through facts and figures. In the first part of our series, we look at what constitutes data-based storytelling

Mohammed Haddad
Mohammed Haddad Published on: 16 Mar, 2023
Why are journalists being prevented from reporting on the earthquakes? 

Media workers have played a vital role in ensuring help arrives for earthquake victims in Turkey, but many claim they are being prevented from doing their jobs

Aidan
Aidan White Published on: 5 Mar, 2023
Field notes from an earthquake - reporting on human misery

REPORTER'S NOTEBOOK: Where do you draw the line when covering human suffering? When does reporting on a devastating earthquake cross over from objective journalism to tasteless voyeurism?

Ilya
Ilya U Topper Published on: 20 Feb, 2023
‘I reported the truth - and was taken to jail’ - the journalists in prison in India

Indian journalist Siddique Kappan has been released after more than two years in prison just for doing his job. We talked to him and others who have been arrested or imprisoned

Saurabh Sharma
Saurabh Sharma Published on: 15 Feb, 2023
‘Leading the voiceless’ - how low-caste Indian journalists are crowdfunding their own newsrooms

Dalit representation in Indian media organisations is very low. Some journalists from the lowest Hindu caste are finding innovative ways to start up their own news platforms

Saurabh Sharma
Saurabh Sharma Published on: 13 Feb, 2023
Investigative journalism: Handling data and gathering evidence

Data is only one part of the investigative story. In Part 5 of our series on investigative journalism, we look at different methods of gathering evidence

Malak Khalil Published on: 9 Feb, 2023
Investigative journalism: Going undercover 

Covert operations for a journalistic investigation should be undertaken as a last resort only. In Part 4 of our series on investigative journalism, we explore the best ways to go undercover

Malak Khalil Published on: 2 Feb, 2023
‘They called us agents of imperialism’ - remembering the bombing of Zimbabwe’s Daily News

Twenty-two years after the bombing of a newspaper printing plant in January 2001, the perpetrators are still at large - and a state-sanctioned assault on a free press continues

Derick M
Derick Matsengarwodzi Published on: 30 Jan, 2023
Investigative journalism: How to develop and manage your sources

Your sources are the backbone of any investigation. In Part 3 of our series on investigative journalism, we look at how to find, foster and manage them

Malak Khalil Published on: 26 Jan, 2023
Investigative journalism: What should you investigate?

In the first of our series on investigative journalism, we look at how journalists decide what to investigate

Malak Khalil Published on: 12 Jan, 2023
Navigating the Great Firewall of China

International media is blacked out in China - and very few are willing to try to bypass the country’s Firewall  

headshot
Al Jazeera Journalism Review Correspondent Published on: 5 Jan, 2023